Climate change and extremes

Predicting the likelihood of extreme weather events

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Climate change and extremes
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WP1 led by the University of Hamburg, predicts the likelihood of extreme weather events that would disrupt food production in selected geographical areas.

As the first stage in the WINnERS project, the team develops scripts for (1) downloading climate data, such as temperature, wind, pressure, and humidity, (2) post-processing the data for selected regions, (3) interpolating the data into required grids, and (4) generating desired climate indices. These activities are intended to support the assessment of agricultural production risk carried out by Work Programme 2, Weather and Agricultural Risk.

Identifying the likelihood of extreme weather events in small geogrpahic areas will help farmers and buyers adapt to climate change

A unique feature of the WINnERS project, WP1 will develop a selection process to identify the best climate model for predicting the probability of extreme weather events in a specific sourcing site. By identifying the primary drivers of climate variability in a given area or customer sourcing site, ineffective models can be eliminated and the most robust and appropriate models can be selected to predict agricultural losses with the greatest degree of accuracy under future climate scenarios. This creates the foundation for insurance products and services that best insulate supply chain actors against climate and weather driven losses.

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